The following slides were presented during DAWA’s teach-in on April 18, 2026 titled “The War on Iran: How we got here, what might come next, and what we have to do about it.”

Below the slides, we are providing detailed notes written during the research for the presentation. The notes roughly correspond to the content of the presentation, though not exactly. We hope the slides and notes prove useful as a reference.

Iran-Teach-in-Slides-compressed

Build-Up to the War

JCPOA

• Established limits and oversight on Iran’s enrichment in exchange for reduced sanctions
• The deal is less meaningful than is often said:
  • Iran had a prior fatwa against developing nuclear weapons, so this deal is more about assurance than actual prevention. 
  • Sanctions relief was very limited, centered on nuclear-related sanctions. The US did not lift many other sanctions, such as those related to its missile program or support for the Axis of Resistance
• The MOST meaningful aspect of the deal is actually that a deal was reached, considering the levels of hostility on each side

2018: Trump withdraws from the JCPOA

• This dealt a major blow to international trust, but especially Iran’s trust, in the US
• International law and international relations work very differently to domestic law. When Trump pulls something crazy domestically, the consequences are quickly visible: A court will typically restrict what he’s doing and then a long legal battle ensues over whether or not he’s allowed to do it. Internationally, it takes much longer for consequences to manifest.
• Iran, rightfully, decided it could not trust the US.
• Since, Iran removed international oversight from its uranium enrichment facilities. It has maintained that it is not working towards nuclear weapons, and there are no factual indicators that this is false. 

2023: October 7th

• Caused a cascade of conflicts in the region, between the Axis of Resistance on one side and the US, Israel and the Arab Gulf States (Saudi, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain) and Jordan on the other.
• The Axis of Resistance:
  • A group of militant organizations and states in the Arab World joined primarily by a common interest in ending US and Israeli influence in the region. They are more loosely connected by political Islamic ideologies, but this is not uniform – there are wildly different paths of historical development and corresponding ideological development in the Axis’ constituents
  • The Axis consists of:
    • Iran (state)
    • Yemen (state, controlled by Ansarallah “Houthis”)
    • PMF in Iraq
    • Hezbollah in Lebanon
    • Hamas, Palestine
    • PIJ, Palestine
    • Formerly, Syrian state
• Very broadly, in response to Al-Aqsa Flood, Israel began committing genocide in Gaza. In response to the genocide, Hezbollah began striking Israel. In response to Hezbollah, Israel began striking Lebanon and invading the south with the possibility of long-term occupation of Southern Lebanon in mind.
  • Syria remained mostly passive, but was the main corridor for Iran to provide weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas
  • In November 2024, Assad was ousted
  • In 2025, Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire with Israel. Israel has never adhered to the ceasefire terms, and continuously bombed Lebanon. 

2025: The 12-Day War

• US-Iran negotiations over nuclear program do not develop in the direction the US and Israel want
• With US permission, Israel attacks Iran in June. Iran responds with waves of ballistic missiles. Near the end, the US strikes Iranian nuclear facilities with B-2 bombers. Iran strikes US bases. Trump calls a unilateral ceasefire, which somehow everyone actually does adhere to. 

2025-2026: The Protests

• Supposedly in defense of Iranian protesters, Trump and Netanyahu signal willingness to attack Iran.
• On 1/14 2026, Iran closes its airspace twice.
• It is later revealed that Trump tried to choreograph a conflict with Iran, wanting to strike several locations in Iran and in exchange allow Iran to “symbolically retaliate” against a US base. Iran refused.

2026: The Negotiations

• Since 1/14, tensions rose. In February, the US began a major military buildup in the region including aircraft carriers and aerial refuelling capabilities, both necessities for a long bombing campaign – especially with so many US bases threatened.
• At the same time, the US and Iran entered negotiations. Iran entered specifically on the condition that the only topic of discussion would the nuclear program.
  • The nuclear program was to be the only subject of negotiations: Iran’s ballistic missiles, support for regional allies were not on the table.
  • No ban on enrichment, or removal of existing enriched uranium. They were willing to negotiate levels of enrichment, dilution of existing enriched uranium stockpiles, international oversight of these processes.
    • NOTE: Iran does not have any uranium enriched enough to be used in a nuclear weapon, AND there is a long-standing fatwa by Khamenei banning the development of a nuclear weapon since the 1990s, publicly announced in the early 2000s.

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Talks Before the War

During these talks Iran established several red lines:

1. No ban on enrichment, or removal of existing enriched uranium. They were willing to negotiate levels of enrichment, dilution of existing enriched uranium stockpiles, international oversight of these processes.
   1. NOTE: Iran does not have any uranium enriched enough to be used in a nuclear weapon, AND there is a long-standing fatwa by Khamenei banning the development of a nuclear weapon since the 1990’s, publicly announced in the early 2000’s.
2. The nuclear program was to be the only subject of negotiations: Iran’s ballistic missiles, support for regional allies were not on the table.

The US disregarded these red lines and attempted to convince Iran to limit its ballistic missile range and end support for the Axis of Resistance.

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Timeline of War

Sources

Al Jazeera – How the US-Israel war on Iran unfolded in its first four weeks

Al Jazeera – Map shows how 38 days of attacks have evolved in US-Israel war on Iran

The Business Standard – US-Iran war timeline: Key events from first strikes to ceasefire

NYT – Iran War Timeline: Key Moments and Attacks

Reuters – Maps and charts of the Iran War

Week 1 (Feb 28 – Mar 7)

• First round of strikes on Feb 28. More than 1000 locations in Iran were struck by US and Israel, including Ali Khamenei’s home and the Minab Girls School. The first round of strikes constituted a “shock and awe” campaign that the Pentagon claims amounted to twice the firepower of the similar campaign at the start of the 2003 Iraq War
• Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, IRGC commander Mohammad Pakpour, Khamenei’s advisor Ali Shamkhani, and top general Abdolrahim Mousavi were among officials killed in the first wave
• Strike on Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab killed at least 175 people, including over 100 children
• Iran quickly responded with missile and drone attacks across the region, targeting Israel as well as military, infrastructure and energy-related targets in Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE. Notable targets included the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet HQ in Bahrain where two large satellite terminals were destroyed (add satellite image)
• On March 1, Iranian drones killed six US soldiers in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. These were the first US soldiers officially reported killed in the war
• On March 1 or 2, a US THAAD radar system at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was destroyed
• On March 2, Iranian drones damaged a facility belonging to QatarEnergy, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer. This wiped out 17% of Qatar’s LNG exports
• On March 2, Israeli strikes targeted the HQ of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, though broadcasts were live again by the following day
• On March 2, Hezbollah launched multiple missiles into northern Israel, which according to Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem was done to push Israel to withdraw from territories it was occupying in Lebanon. In response, Israel began a bombing campaign and ground invasion of Lebanon 
• On March 3, debris and shockwaves from a strike in Tehran shattered windows, doors, and mirrors in the Golestan Palace, a UNESCO World Heritage Site built in the 16th century
• On March 5, a US submarine torpedoed the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena near Sri Lanka, killing around 80 Iranian sailors
• Overnight strikes on March 7 by both the US and Israel targeted several oil depots and refineries around Tehran, releasing huge plumes of toxic smoke that produced black rain over the city

Key Points:

• Massive bombing campaign by US & Israel kicked off war, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei 
• Iran’s retaliation caused widespread damage to US military infrastructure in West Asia as well as energy infrastructure in the Gulf States
• In the first week, oil prices rose from ~$70 to over $90. Civilian aviation also saw a dramatic drop across Gulf States, including major cities like Dubai
• Israel began a ground invasion of Lebanon, which killed hundreds and displaced hundreds of thousands in the first week. Evacuation orders that are illegal under international law were given by Israeli officials for an area amounting to 8% of Lebanon’s territory

Week 2 (Mar 8 – 14)

• On March 8, Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Khamenei’s son, as the country’s new Supreme Leader
• A US KC-135 refueling aircraft crashed in Iraq on March 12, killing all 6 crew members on board. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq (part of the Axis of Resistance) claimed responsibility for shooting down the aircraft. US Central Command on the other hand denied this, claiming that the plane crashed due to an incident with another US aircraft, which later landed in Israel with the top of its tail fin missing
• On March 13, Israel destroyed the civilian Zrarieh Bridge in Southern Lebanon

Key Points:

• By the second week of the war, over 800,000 people in Lebanon (1/7 of the population) had been forced from their homes by Israeli assaults
• Near the end of the week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian set three conditions for ending war, without strict details
  1. Recognition of Iran’s legitimate rights
  2. Payment of reparations
  3. Guarantees against future aggression against Iran

Week 3 (Mar 15 – 21)

• On March 17, Israeli assassinated Ali Larjani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, the commander of the Basij militia, via airstrikes
  • Larjani was Iran’s top security official and the most senior official assassinated since Ayatollah Khamenei
• Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gasfield, the world’s largest natural gasfield, on March 18
• Joe Kent, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, resigned his position on March 17 in protest of the Iran War
  • “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby”
• Iran struck two cities in southern Israel near Israel’s main nuclear research center
• The number of displaced people in Lebanon rose to over one million in the wake of continued Israeli assaults

Week 4 (Mar 22 – 28)

• Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it failed to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. This was extended by 5 days and then by 10 days
• The US sent two groups of Marines toward West Asia – 2,200 from the 31st Expeditionary Unit on the USS Tripoli, and 2,500 from the 11th Expeditionary Unit on the USS Boxer
• On March 27, Israel bombed multiple Iranian steel factories, and the US & Israel hit the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, Iran’s only operational nuclear power plant. The plant is used for the civilian power grid
• Israel’s finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said that “the new Israeli border must be the Litani [River]”, suggesting Israel planned to annex 20 percent of Lebanon
• Israel bombed the Qasmiyeh bridge linking the south of Lebanon to the rest of the country on March 22
• The US sent a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran, which Iran rejected as “maximalist”
  • Unpublished, but points reportedly include the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear facilities, a commitment from Iran to never develop nuclear weapons, an end to Iranian uranium enrichment, an end of Iranian support to Axis of Resistance groups, in exchange for removal of all sanctions on Iran

Week 5 (Mar 29 – Apr 4)

• Trump made repeated threats to attack Kharg Island and “take the oil”
  • Trump threatened to attack Iran’s Kharg Island, threatening to destroy all of the oil and energy infrastructure there
  • Kharg Island is very small, less than five miles across, but it hosts oil terminals and ports through which ninety percent of the country’s crude oil is transported to large tankers for export
  • Trump’s threat to “take the oil in Iran”, likely would have required the US to seize Kharg Island in a costly invasion
• On March 31, Iran released a statement listing 18 companies as legitimate targets due to their enabling of the US-Israeli War
  • US companies are Microsoft, Google, Apple, Meta, Oracle, Intel, HP, IBM, Cisco, Dell, Palantir, Nvidia, Tesla, JP Morgan, GE, and Boeing. Two companies from UAE, G42 and Spire Solutions.
• Trump threatened to “bomb Iran back to the stone age” if they didn’t open the strait of Hormuz, on April 1
  • Hours later, US bombed and destroyed B1 bridge in Karaj, the largest bridge in Iran and West Asia as a whole
• Iran struck an Amazon cloud computing center in Bahrain on April 1. The same site had previously been attacked on March 1 along with another one in the UAE (more info)
• On April 3, Iran shot down a US F-15, prompting a search effort for both crew members during which multiple US aircraft were destroyed. Both crew members were rescued

Week 6 (Apr 5 – 8)

• US and Israeli attacks designed to destroy cultural facilities – by April 6, the US and Israel had destroyed a 12,000-seat stadium, Azadi Hall, as well as buildings belonging to Iran’s national wrestling team, and the tennis, hockey, cycling, and handball federations
• Kharg Island?
• On April 7, the Rafi-Nia Synagogue in Tehran was destroyed in an Israeli airstrike when an adjacent residential building was attacked (analysis)
• On April 7, Trump threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran didn’t make a peace agreement with the US
  • The next day, Trump announced his agreement to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz
  • 10-point peace plan as basis of negotiations
    • 1. U.S. commitment to ensure no further acts of aggression;
    • 2. Continued Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz;
    • 3. Acceptance of Iran’s nuclear enrichment rights;
    • 4. Lifting of all primary sanctions;
    • 5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions;
    • 6. Termination of all United Nations Security Council resolutions against Iran;
    • 7. Termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors resolutions against Iran;
    • 8. Payment of damages to Iran for loss in the war;
    • 9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region;
    • 10. Cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
• Israel immediately broke ceasefire, carrying out its largest coordinated strikes against Lebanon since the start of its latest war this year against Hezbollah. Israel attacked Beirut, killing at least 254 people and wounding 837

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Measures of Success

• No war is won through purely military means. Armed conflict is a tool used to accomplish political goals. Victory is measured by which goals are achieved. The cost associated with those goals is relevant as well – a war can be won, but at such high cost that a state is poorly positioned to recover and resume its normal functioning.
• US Goals:
  • The US’ goals in this war are unclear, but they include the following:
  • 1. Regime Change in Iran
  • 2. The end of Iran’s nuclear program, including an end to enrichment, the extraction of Iran’s highly enriched uranium to another country.
  • 3. The end of Iran’s ballistic missile program, including limiting the range of Iranian missiles to 300km 
  • 4. Iran withdrawing support for the axis of resistance, including supplying arms, funding and training
  • 5. (Now) Opening the Strait of Hormuz
• Iran’s Goals:
  • 1. Re-establish deterrence, which means making the US and regional powers like Israel and the Arab Gulf states reluctant to attack Iran again
  • 2. (Now) Confirm its control the Strait of Hormuz
  • 3. End US military presence in the region, i.e. the US withdrawing from all military bases
  • 4. End the US and Israeli war on the Axis of Resistance, i.e. Israel withdrawing from Gaza and Lebanon, end to US and Israeli strikes in Iraq and Iran
  • 5. Reparations to Iran for the damage done by the US and Israel
  • 6. Lifting of all US sanctions against Iran
  • 7. Release of all frozen Iranian assets abroad
• Assessing progress toward goals:
  • US-1: None. The Islamic Republic has withstood the assassination of various leaders, and they have not been replaced with leaders more favorable to the US. There is no force in Iran that is fighting the Islamic Republic or is capable of replacing it.
    • Requires military and diplomatic means: destruction of IR infrastructure, chains of command, and a force that can replace the IR OR a group of such forces that could balkanize Iran.
  • US-2: None. Iran has not budged diplomatically. Some facilities have been damaged, but none have been irreparably damaged and the highly-enriched uranium may be more difficult to extract if it’s been buried by bombing.
    • Can be partially achieved militarily (i.e. stealing the uranium and bombing the facilities), but also required a diplomatic resolution to prevent the program from starting again.
  • US-3: Limited progress. Iran has not budged diplomatically. Some Iranian military facilities have been destroyed or damaged, others are obstructed. Iran is obviously reducing its missile stockpile by firing them, but there is no indication they are running low.
    • Requires diplomatic resolution to downsize program or prevent it from restarting. 
  • US-4: No Progress. Iran has not budged diplomatically. The war may limit what aid Iran can provide, but there is no indication Iran would not resume providing funds and weapons as soon as possible. 
  • US-5: No Progress. Iran has not budged, and thanks to the US now the strait is completely closed.
  • IR-1: Some Progress. The US is actually very eager to withdraw, but is concerned about losing face. Trump keeps making threats and then not making good on them. Israel wants to keep fighting. Arab states now want to restore deterrence, but are already suffering the most from this war.
  • IR-2: Some Progress. Iran can shut down the strait and proved it, but there is little to no movement on formal acknowledgment of this beyond the initial ceasefire agreement.
  • IR-3: Some Progress. Iran has damaged or destroyed various US bases in the region, forcing the US to rely more on aircraft carriers and quarter its troops in hotels. However, accomplishing this goal would require diplomatic concessions from the US to prevent them rebuilding the bases.
  • IR-4: No Progress. Israel is unwilling to retreat from Lebanon or Gaza, and the US is putting little to no pressure on Israel.
  • IR-5: No Progress. The US has not acknowledged reparations, and this goal cannot be achieved at all by military means.
  • IR-6: Some Progress. US lifted some sanctions on Iranian oil to reduce oil shock.
  • IR-7: Unclear. The US initially agreed to release some Iranian assets, and it was stated that Arab states would help transfer these back to Iran. It is not clear whether any of this has happened. Can only be accomplished diplomatically.
• Iran is winning. The US wants out but doesn’t have an exit ramp. Iran has the appetite and capability to keep fighting, and a need to keep fighting. The US has the capability to keep fighting, but the war is losing popularity and there is no clear way out.

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On the Idea of a Draft…

• Congress needs to approve a draft.
• During the height of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, when the US needed more personnel, they preferred to keep people deployed for longer with “stop loss orders” or reenlistment rather than even contemplate a draft.
• They haven’t even started ground operations yet, so we don’t need to worry about the draft.